Fund Rankings Update, 9/25/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy Cash.
 
Investors continued the selling from last week before Fed Chair Janet Yellen's remark Friday that the Fed is still on track to raise rate this year.  Report on better than expected second quarter GDP also boosted investors confidence about US economy.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1908, down 1.36%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 2.92%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Here we are, six weeks into this correction. S&P 500 index is trading in 2000 - 1900 range, and its momentum looks to be stabilized on the lower end. Among the sectors, we are seeing bio tech index plunged due to Hillary Clinton's price gouging comment on drug prices, and Volkswagen's (VW) stock prices fell sharply after the company admitted its cheating in Federal emission test.  I think we are about  half way into this correction phase. The 28 week moving average for S&P 500 index currently stands at 2037 and acts as a resistance.  As the index stays in the trading range for anther few weeks, we will see the moving average come down close to 2000 and will provide the index a chance to break the resistance. We will see how this all play out in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/18/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued to go higher at the beginning of the week due to strong retail sales and rebound in oil prices. However, the Fed's decision to not raise interest rate on Thursday caused concern about the stablility of the global economy. Stocks plunged Thursday and Friday, and ended up mostly lower for the week. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1958, down 0.15%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% while Nasdaq composite index ended up a bit higher by increasing 0.1%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 A "shooting star" pattern showed up in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index this week. The index briefly broke the 2000 resistance level but succumbed to selling pressure and closed the week a bit below the opening price.  The reverse pattern indicates that the negative sentiment in the market remains strong and traders are waiting for opportunity to sell their holdings. As discussed in the last couple blogs, we expect the index to remain below the 28 week moving average for another 4 or 5 weeks before most of the selling dissipates.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/11/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks rebounded but still with big swing during this holiday-shorten week. China's economy growth and timing of Fed's first rate hike since 2006 are still the major concern on investors' mind.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1961, up 2.01%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.05% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.96%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has been below its trend line for four weeks as seen in the weekly chart. This week we saw the index attempted to break and fail again at the 2000 resistance level.  It took the index 12 weeks to climb back above the trend line in 2011 correction so it may take about the same time to climb back this time. Judging from the trading pattern in the past two week, this is a very likely scenario. If this pans out, we will be in time for a year end rally.  As we are mostly out of the markets to avoid the further down side right now, we can wait  for the opportunity to get back in later.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/4/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks declined with same high volatility due to lingering concern about slow down in China's economy and worries abut Fed's first rate hike.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1921, down 3.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.25% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 2.99%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 S&P 500 index failed to climbed above 2000 to get a rebound, in turn, it went back to retest the 1900 level this past week. As S&P 500 index did not get a bounce this week, wee can rule out a "V" shape rebound like we had in October last year.  This correction looks to be more like the correction we had in August - October, 2011.  At that time, the index fell 18% from the high of 1350 to 1100 and stayed below the trend line for two and half months. This rally has been more than 2 years long and is due for a meaningful correction. The best scenario is for the index to hold the 1900 level and traded between 1900 and 2000 for a few weeks before meeting the trend line. The index is currently trading at the lower end of this channel and we will see how it goes in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/28/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy Cash
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell FKASX, Buy IUTIX
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05084, Buy05088

Stocks experienced wild ride this past week. 10 minute into the first trading day, Dow Jones Industrial average plunged more than 1000 points while closed the day only 500 points down. On Tuesday, DJIA went up more than 400 points before the last hour selling and ended down 200 points. Investor sentiment finally turned positive and major indices rallied on Wednesday and Thuraday with help on company merger news and strong US second quarter GDP.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1988, up 0.91%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.11% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.2%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has formed a long tail "Hammer" pattern in its weekly chart similar to the pattern in October 2014. However, the index is further below its trend line this time around and will take longer to recover. The 28 week moving average used to be the support line on the way up, now it becomes the resistance, and the index has to break the resistance to the end this correction.  Next week's trading is critical to see if the index will have a "V" shape recovery or not.  

Due to the market sell-off, three trading signals were issued this week in SSPP, HSA and RSP model portfolios separately to move to cash or defensive positions (see "Trading Logs" page for detail). With these trading signals, all the model portfolios are either in defensive position or cash position. The last time this happened was in August - October, 2011 when S&P 500 index endured a 21 % correction for 3 months.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/21/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FSRPX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IDU
Trading signal occurs in sETFT model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy ITB
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWK, Buy Cash

Stocks plunged this week on worried about global economic slow down and the devaluation of China's currency while ncertainty about the timing of Fed's first rate hike rubbed salt into the wound.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 19701, downp 5.77%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.82% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 6.789%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

From the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has fallen below its trading channel of 2040 - 2130 in a violent way giving this rally a long overdue correction. In the 2014 sell-off during September-October time frame, the index fell from 2019 to 1820 with a 10% drop. At that time the index ended up a hammer formation (candle with long tail and short body) and rebounded right above the trend line in the next week to resume the uptrend. The chart pattern this past week showed a long boy candle which indicates that the selling has not quite ended although we may see some bounce next week.  The next support level on the down site is around 1900.  

The bio tech sector has suffer larger loss in this sell-off and caused position changes in several model portfolios this week. SELECT, ETF, and sETF model portfolios have trading signals issued to sell bio tech funds and move to more defensive funds.  For international funds, iETF model portfolio has issued trading signal to move to cash position. Please see detail in the "Trading logs" page.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/14/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks rebounded from the lower bound of the trading channel.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2091, up 0.67%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by increasing 0.09%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index