YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 3/24/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio, Sell FSDAX, buy FSELX

Stocks advanced this week shaking off the turmoil in banking sectors as investors relived that the Fed increased the interest rate only 0.25% as expected and hope that it will stop increasing the rate hike after one more increase in May. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.39% to 3970, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.18%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index increased 1.66%.

After two consecutive advances, S&P 500 index still closed below its 28 week exponential moving average. The index went above the EMA mid week but failed to sustain the gain and closed a bit below the EMA. However, its momentum indicator has turned up, giving it a chance to climb above the trend line next week. As discussed in the blog last week, we may see the index consolidate around the 28 week EMA before getting back to its slow uptrend trajectory.

Trading signal occurred in SELECT model portfolios this week due to the recent sector rotation. We will sell FSDAX and replace it with the current number 1 rank fund, FSELX.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/17/2023

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio, Sell CSVYX, buy RIGGX

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio, Sell IEZ, buy ITB

Stocks closed the week mixed as investors worried about propagation of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank to the other regional banks while on the other hands, increased the hope that Fed will now ease the rate hiking cycle to prevent the worsening of the banking sector. On the economy front, the inflation moderate a bit as February data showed consumer price went up 6% year over year inline with expectation and the produce price index declined 0.1% For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.43% to 3916, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.15%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index increased 4.41%.

S&P 500 index closed below its trend line for the second weeks. If the index can find a support at 3800, rebounds and forms a higher low pattern in the weekly chart, we may see it gets back to the moderate uptrend since October last year. However, we expect the index to stay below its 28 week EMA for another couple weeks in the short term as its momentum indicator is rapidly falling towards the oversold zone.

Trading signals occurred in HSA and sETF model portfolios this week due to the recent weakness in US equity market and sector rotation. We will sell CSVYX and move to RIGGX in HSA model portfolio; and sell IEZ to buy ITB in sETF model portfolio.

Weekly chart of S$P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/10/2023

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio, Sell 05087, buy 42626

Stocks fell sharply this week as negative sentiment prevailed from the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, commented that with the current inflation trajectory, Fed may increase the pace of rate hikes and the terminal rate may be higher than expected. Friday's better than expected job data also spooked investors that the inflationary pressure has failed to be reduced so far. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.55% to 3861, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.44%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index decreased 4.71%.

After bouncing back above its 28 week EMA last week, S&P 500 index fell solidly below its trend line. A weaker support of 3600 is waiting nearby and a stronger support of 3400 is not far away either.

A trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio this week due to the recent weakness in US equity market. We will sell the holding in LSV large cap value fund (05087) and replace it with the current number one rank fund, State Street World Development Index fund (42626), in the RSP ranking table.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/3/2023

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, buy Cash

Stocks regained some ground from the sharp losses a week ago. Economic data released during the week were mixed as January manufacturer durable goods order fell 4.5% but the new home sales saw it jump 8.1% in January. Investors sentiment were bolstered by Atlanta Federal Reserve President's remark that Fed could pause the rate hike by mid to late summer. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.9% to 4045, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.75%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index increased 2.58%.

S&P 500 index bounced right back above its 28 week EMA indicating a continuation of the rally going forward. We will watch the market closely next week to see if the index can keep its momentum up and continue to stay above its trend line.

The whiplash of the stock price action has caused the momentum indicator of FEMKX to dipped below 50 and closed at 63.41 this week. Even though it bounced back above its trendline, a sell signal was issued according to the trading rule. We will move out of FEMKX and move into Cash for at least one month.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 2/24/2023

Stocks closed sharply lower this week as investors were spooked by the higher than expected core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index which jumped 0.6% in January. The resurgent of inflation led investors to raise the timing and extent of the coming rate hikes from Federal Reserve. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.67% to 3970, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.99%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index decreased 3.33%.

S&P 500 index closed a bit below its 28 week EMA with diminished momentum. If the index can not quickly bounce back above the support next week, we may see it retreated to retest its low of 3600.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/17/2023

Stocks closed mixed this week as investors were surprised by the big jump in January produce price index, which offset the positive sentiment from strong retail sales and company earnings. Investors worried that the 0.7% jump in January produce price index may force the Fed to pickup the pace of interest rate hikes again. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.28% to 4079, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.59%.

S&P 500 index continues to consolidate in a tight range above its 28 week EMA. Again, as long as the index stays above its 28 week EMA, we expect the uptrend to continue.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/10/2023

Stocks took a breather as major indices closed down. Energy sectors outperformed the general market while communication sectors lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.11% to 4090, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.17%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.41%.

S&P 500 index consolidated to digest the recent quick gains as we have discussed in last week's blog. The index is still above its 28 week exponential moving average (EMA) with high momentum. As long as the index stays above its 28 week EMA, we expect the uptrend to continue.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index