YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 9/27/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IAT, Buy ITB.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

The stock market continued its upward trend this week, with the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new record highs. The economic news released during the week showed both softness in economic growth and the tameness in inflation. The U.S. consumer confidence index fell sharply to 98.7 in August, the lowest level in two years, and new home sales declined 4.7% in August, although not as much as expected. On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that the core personal consumer expenditures (PCE) price index, rose only 0.1% in August. The index climbed only 2.2% yearly, close to the Fed’s 2.0% long-term inflation target. For the week, The S&P 500 gained 0.62%, closing at 5738, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.59%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 0.95%.

The S&P 500 index has maintained its strong upward trajectory. Our bullish stance remains unchanged: We anticipate further gains, and any pullback to the 10-day or 20-day moving averages on the daily chart should be considered potential buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/20/2024

Stocks marched higher with S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching all-time highs after the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.5% on Wednesday. In addition to the Fed's rate cut which signaled the start of the rate-cutting cycle, the positive economic news released during the week also boosted investors' sentiment. The retail sales in July went up 0.1%, significantly more than the -0.2% expected, and the weekly unemployment claims went down to 219K from 231K in the previous week. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 1.36%, closing at 5702, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.62%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.49%.

The S&P 500 index has closed above its previous high of 5669 and the psychological resistance of 5700. Given its strong upward momentum, the index is likely to continue trending higher. As previously noted, any dips to the 10-day or 20-day EMAs on the daily chart can be seen as buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/13/2024

Stocks closed sharply higher recovering the loss from the previous week with help from technology sectors. Core inflation in August released on Wednesday went up 0.3%, a tick higher than expected, while the headline inflation peaked at 2.5%, well below the 2.9% in July. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 4.02%, closing at 5626, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.6%, and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 5.95%.

The S&P 500 index has successfully tested the 100-day EMA support and closed above its 10-day and 20-day EMAs on the daily chart. While the index did not fully test its 28-week EMA support at 5300 on the weekly chart, the price action suggests that it has completed the "W" shape recovery pattern and will likely continue its upward trend. Any dips to the 10-day or 20-day EMAs can be seen as buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/6/2024

Stocks closed sharply lower this week as worries about recession weighed on investors' sentiment. Data released during the week all painted a slowdown in economic growth. The ISM manufacturing PMI released on Tuesday remained firmly in contraction territory in August, and the July job openings reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday fell to 7.67 million, the lowest level since 2021. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the US added only 142K jobs well below the 164K jobs estimation. For the week, The S&P 500 went down 4.25%, closing at 5408, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.93%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 5.77%.

The S&P 500 index failed to close above its previous high of 5670 and plunged significantly to 5408, near its 28-week exponential moving average of 5309. This development has invalidated our anticipated "V"-shape recovery. Instead, a "W"-shape recovery becomes more probable if the index can find support around 5300 and successfully tested that level. However, the recent price action has formed a double top bearish formation with the neck line support at 5100. If that support was broken, we will see a major down turn which may take the index down to previous high of 4600. Despite this bearish scenario, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting on September 17-18 suggests that a "W"-shaped recovery remains a more likely outcome.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/30/2024

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy EZA

Stocks closed mixed this week with the tech stocks dragged down by NVIDIA after its widely anticipated earning report. On the economic front, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index released on Friday morning showed prices rising only 0.2% in July and 2.6% year over year. Investors welcomed the data, which confirmed that inflation is easing and increased their confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 0.24%, closing at 5648, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.92%.

The S&P 500 index has approached its previous high of 5670. If the index closes above 5670 next week, a bullish "V" shape formation will be completed in the weekly chart and the index will continue its intermediate upward trend. As discussed before, a potential entry point will be after the index surpasses the previous high and then retraces back to retest the support at 5670.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/23/2024

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IAT

Stocks advanced modestly higher this week with the Fed chair Jerome Powell hinting at a rate cut in September in his speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The economic data released over the week such as Flash manufacturing PMI, Flash service PMI, and existing home sales, all aligned with expectations. However, the non-farm payroll count was revised downward by a significant 818,000, far exceeding forecasts. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 1.45%, closing at 5634, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.27%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.4%.

As the S&P 500 index continues its rally, a bullish "V" shape formation will be completed if the index closes above the previous high of 5670. However, if the index fails to close above its previous high and falls right back, a bearish double-top pattern will be formed which will cause the index to fall back to the trend line support at 5300. For the first scenario, a potential entry point might be after the index surpasses the previous high and then retraces slightly to retest the support. In the second scenario, waiting for a rebound from the trendline support could mark the completion of the W-shaped recovery and offer an entry opportunity.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/16/2024

Stocks advanced broadly higher this week, encouraged by the tamed inflation data and positive economic news. The July core PPI reported on Tuesday by the Labor Department was flat month over month ending three months of increase, and the year-over-year CPI, reported Wednesday, fell to 2.9% for the first time in three years. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped 1.0% in July well above the expected 0.4%, bolstering investors' "soft landing" scenario. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 3.93%, closing at 5554. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 5.29%.

The S&P 500 has rebounded sharply over the past two weeks, surpassing its 28-week exponential moving average. A continued upward trajectory without a pullback to close above its previous peak of 5670 would confirm a V-shaped recovery. In this scenario, a potential buying opportunity could arise after a retest of the 5670 level. However, if the index retraces back to its 20-day EMA (currently at 5400) or 100-day EMA (currently at 5320) on the daily chart, it would form a W-bottom pattern, presenting another buying opportunity. The market's behavior over the next two weeks will determine whether the recovery follows a V-shaped or W-shaped path.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index