Fund Rankings Update, 7/25/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell RIGGX, Buy MLAIX

Stocks picked up steam to march higher with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both achieving new all-time highs.  Positive sentiments were supported by the announcement of trade deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.46% to close at 6388, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.02%. 

The S&P 500 index has decisively broken its three-week consolidation pattern, surging to yet another record high. With strong positive momentum, the index appears poised to continue its upward trajectory, setting its sights on the 6500 target.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/18/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIEUX, Buy FTRNX

Trading signal occurs in the ETF model portfolio: Sell EWW Buy IYW

This week, the stock market saw mixed performance, though positive momentum continued for many. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both achieved new all-time highs. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight dip. Driving the positive sentiment were robust quarterly earnings reports from major banks and generally favorable economic data. While inflation did accelerate, it aligned with market expectations. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in June, up from 0.1% in May. Annually, the CPI increased to 2.7% from 2.4% in May. Additionally, retail sales showed stronger-than-expected growth, climbing 0.6% in June after a 0.9% contraction in May. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.59% to close at 6296, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.51%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.07%.

The S&P 500 continued its upward trajectory last week, closing at another all-time high, largely propelled by the robust performance of large-cap and technology sectors. While the underlying uptrend and strong momentum remain intact, the index appears to be in a sideways consolidation phase. This pause is likely allowing its 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to catch up. Once this consolidation concludes, the S&P 500 is expected to resume its upward path.

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/11/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks largely moved sideways with a negative tilt this week as President Trump announced several new country-specific tariffs. Brazil faced a substantial 50% tariff, while Canada was hit with 35%. Japan and South Korea each received 25% tariffs, and other Southeast Asian nations were subject to varying levels of levies. With the July 9th deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause now expired, markets anticipate more country-specific tariffs in the coming weeks. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.31% to 6257.9, the Dow Jones shed 1.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.08%.

The S&P 500 took a breather this week, essentially closing where it began. This period of sideways consolidation suggests a healthy digestion of recent gains rather than a fundamental shift in market sentiment. Crucially, the index remains well above its 28-week exponential moving average (EMA), signaling that its strong underlying momentum and clear uptrend are still intact. With these technical indicators aligning, the S&P 500 appears to be on track to march toward our 6500 Fibonacci target.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/4/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks continued to advance higher with the S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ reaching another all-time high.  Positive investor sentiments were supported by the passage of the Trump administration's budget bill and the announcement of the trade deal with Vietnam. On the economic data front, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%, both better than expected. The activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for another month, albeit at a slower rate, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM's) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) coming in at 49.1%.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.72% to 6279, the Dow Jones gained 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.62%.

The S&P 500 continued its upward trajectory, pushing past the 6200 psychological resistance and closing the shortened trading week at a new record high of 6279 on Thursday. With the clear prevailing uptrend and sustained momentum, the index appears poised to extend its gains further. Given the recent breakout to new highs and the overall bullish sentiment, the index could see further incremental gains, potentially heading towards the 6500 Fibonacci target. However, traders should be mindful of potential short-term pullbacks, especially given the rapid ascent. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 6/27/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

The S&P 500 advanced to a new high as tension deescalated in the Middle East and dovish comments about interest rates from from several Fedderal Reserves members. Data showed inflation ticked modestly higher in May. Economic data released during the week showed the inflation is tamed while economy is growing at a slower rate.  The core personal consumption expenditures ( Core PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year in May, slightly ahead of consensus estimates.  The Flash U.S. Composite Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released Monday came in at 52.8, down slightly from May’s reading of 53.0, indicating that the US economy continued to grow at the end of the second quarter.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.44% to 6173, the Dow Jones gained 3.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.25%.

The S&P 500 exhibited a strong bullish performance this week, reaching a new all-time high of 6173 on Friday.  This upward trajectory indicates robust buying pressure and a clear continuation of the overarching uptrend. For the next couple of weeks, the technical outlook remains to the upside, with the immediate target being the next psychological level of 6200. While a minor pullback or consolidation could occur to digest these gains, any such dips are likely to be met with strong buying interest, as long as key support levels, such as the 10-day EMA and the 6100 former resistance (now support), hold firm. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 6/20/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

The S&P 500 closed almost flat this week as tension escalating in the Middle East.  All eyes were on the interest rate decision from the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed leaves the the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% while expects to make two interest rate cuts through the remainder of the year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller made comments suggesting the central bank could cut rates in July in an interview Friday morning, which boosted investor sentiment early in the day.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.15% to 5967, the Dow Jones gained 0.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.21%.

The S&P 500 declined a bit closing the week below its 10-day EMA but holding above its 20-day EMA. The failure to reclaim the psychological 6000 level and testing its 20-day EMA suggest a short-term pause or minor pullback from its recent ascent while the index remains in a broader uptrend, holding above its 28-week EMA.  As discussed in the last blog, should the 20-day EMA (currently at 5948) fail to hold as support, the index could fall to its 28-week EMA at 5773. Conversely, if the index manages to stay above 5948, we could anticipate it to break its previous high of 6147.  The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the broader uptrend reasserts itself.

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/13/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed modestly lower, as the news that Israel conducted a preemptive air attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders sank the investors' sentiment and turned the positive markets negative on the last trading day of the week.   All eyes were on the inflation data last week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% month over month, down from 0.2% in April, and prices rose 2.4% yearly, up from April’s  2.3%, but below the expectation for a 2.5% increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8% yearly, unchanged from April and a tick below the estimate for a 2.9% increase. The cooler-than-expected inflation data had driven down the Treasury yields and provided support to investors' sentiment early in the week. The S&P 500 fell 0.39% to close at 5976, the Dow Jones lost 1.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.63% for the week.

The S&P 500 closed the week at 5976, pulling back from the psychological resistance level of 6000. Despite this retreat, the overall uptrend remains intact, with the index holding above its 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) and maintaining strong underlying momentum. In the short term, however, we might see some weakness. The index broke below its 10-day EMA on Friday and appears to be testing the 20-day EMA, which is currently around 5927. Should the 20-day EMA fail to hold as support, the index could fall to its 28-week EMA at 5760. Conversely, if the index manages to stay above 5927, we could anticipate it breaking its previous high of 6147. The coming week will be crucial in determining whether short-term weakness prevails or if the broader uptrend reasserts itself.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index