YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: September 2024

Fund Rankings Update, 9/27/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IAT, Buy ITB.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

The stock market continued its upward trend this week, with the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new record highs. The economic news released during the week showed both softness in economic growth and the tameness in inflation. The U.S. consumer confidence index fell sharply to 98.7 in August, the lowest level in two years, and new home sales declined 4.7% in August, although not as much as expected. On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that the core personal consumer expenditures (PCE) price index, rose only 0.1% in August. The index climbed only 2.2% yearly, close to the Fed’s 2.0% long-term inflation target. For the week, The S&P 500 gained 0.62%, closing at 5738, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.59%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 0.95%.

The S&P 500 index has maintained its strong upward trajectory. Our bullish stance remains unchanged: We anticipate further gains, and any pullback to the 10-day or 20-day moving averages on the daily chart should be considered potential buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/20/2024

Stocks marched higher with S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching all-time highs after the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.5% on Wednesday. In addition to the Fed's rate cut which signaled the start of the rate-cutting cycle, the positive economic news released during the week also boosted investors' sentiment. The retail sales in July went up 0.1%, significantly more than the -0.2% expected, and the weekly unemployment claims went down to 219K from 231K in the previous week. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 1.36%, closing at 5702, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.62%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.49%.

The S&P 500 index has closed above its previous high of 5669 and the psychological resistance of 5700. Given its strong upward momentum, the index is likely to continue trending higher. As previously noted, any dips to the 10-day or 20-day EMAs on the daily chart can be seen as buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/13/2024

Stocks closed sharply higher recovering the loss from the previous week with help from technology sectors. Core inflation in August released on Wednesday went up 0.3%, a tick higher than expected, while the headline inflation peaked at 2.5%, well below the 2.9% in July. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 4.02%, closing at 5626, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.6%, and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 5.95%.

The S&P 500 index has successfully tested the 100-day EMA support and closed above its 10-day and 20-day EMAs on the daily chart. While the index did not fully test its 28-week EMA support at 5300 on the weekly chart, the price action suggests that it has completed the "W" shape recovery pattern and will likely continue its upward trend. Any dips to the 10-day or 20-day EMAs can be seen as buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/6/2024

Stocks closed sharply lower this week as worries about recession weighed on investors' sentiment. Data released during the week all painted a slowdown in economic growth. The ISM manufacturing PMI released on Tuesday remained firmly in contraction territory in August, and the July job openings reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday fell to 7.67 million, the lowest level since 2021. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the US added only 142K jobs well below the 164K jobs estimation. For the week, The S&P 500 went down 4.25%, closing at 5408, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.93%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 5.77%.

The S&P 500 index failed to close above its previous high of 5670 and plunged significantly to 5408, near its 28-week exponential moving average of 5309. This development has invalidated our anticipated "V"-shape recovery. Instead, a "W"-shape recovery becomes more probable if the index can find support around 5300 and successfully tested that level. However, the recent price action has formed a double top bearish formation with the neck line support at 5100. If that support was broken, we will see a major down turn which may take the index down to previous high of 4600. Despite this bearish scenario, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting on September 17-18 suggests that a "W"-shaped recovery remains a more likely outcome.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index