Fund Ranking Update, 6 /27/2008

Market sentiment kept deteriorating, DJIA lost 4.2%, and NASDAQ lost 3.8% for the week. As can be seen in the chart for S&P 500, the STO is heading down to the over sold area (below 20). It can get uglier before it gets better. Although energy related sectors remain strong for now, they will eventually follow suit if general market gets worse. We will just have to see how the whole thing evolves.

The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Market Review and How to subscribe this blog, 6/26/2008

What a difference a year makes! Last year this time, the inflation was low and the economy growth was robust. But right now, the astronomical energy price (and looks like it is going even higher) has finally dragged down the economy. It has caused the price to go up in almost everything we use and eat. Higher inflation coupled with the lingering effects of the credit crunch and the burst of housing bubble, the economy is heading into recession. Some may say we are already in recession and it does feel like it, isn’t it? With the Fed keeping the interest rate at 2%, it is very hard for them to prop up the economy while keeping inflation in check.

All the major U.S. stock indices started the year with a sharp drop and then turned around from their mid-March low. The rebound seemed to be gaining traction heading into mid-May to establish an up trend. However, the consolidation failed to hold up in June, and it looks like they are going down again to test the March low. The DIJIA stands at 11453 after 358-point drop today with a loss of 13.7% for the year so far, and the NASDAQ is at 2321 with a loss of about 12.5% (ouch!).

Because of the uncertainty in the general market and lacking of longer robust up-trend, most our positions in the SSPP model portfolio and nSSPP model portfolio so far this year did not last more than 3 months. From our trading log, our positions usually incur loss if they were held less than 3 months because the system was designed to profit from the market trend that last more than six months. Please note that I added nSSPP rankings this year and have not optimized the trading threshold due to its short history. For the industrial sectors and international sectors, everything related to energy is in the forefront due to higher price of oil. They fared better than the general U.S. market, which can be seen from our holdings in Select, ETF, iETF, and sETF model portfolios. We currently hold FNGX, ILF, EWZ, IEO in these model portfolios respectively.

I started to publicize my blog site last week. You can access from the link in the side bar. The blog allows me to share my view and comments of the market more freely and more often. Remember the FEMKX timing model based on the stochastics? I intentionally took it out from this site at the beginning of the year because it is shorter term orientated and does not fit into the AMI ranking system. I have posted that timing model in my blog site and you can see that it has done a decent job in this market condition. You can even subscribe to my blog site so that you can find out my recently update without waiting for my e-mail or visiting my site.

If you are curious to know, I have not got paid from Google for the Ads in this site. You need to click often so that I can accumulate enough earning :->.

I have provided RSS feed subscription in the side bar of this blog. RSS feed allows user to automatically receive the update in their bookmarks from the website without physically visit the site. It is very popular and widely used in blogs and news sites. In order to take advantage this great service, you need to have the news reader or live bookmark capable browsers. IE 6.0 unfortunately did not support the live bookmark, while Firefox and IE 7.0 have these capability. My yahoo, My AOL, and Google Reader all support the RSS subscription.

It is very easy to subscribe the RSS feed. Just click the RSS icon in the "Subscribe Now:" section in the side bar. It will take you to the subscription page where you can select the reader you use. If you do not have the reader, you can click the "View feed xml" -->"live Bookmarks" --> "Subscribe Now".

Now, every time I update my blog your reader or bookmarks will automatically update the feed.

iEF and sETF ranking update, 6/24/2008

With the backdrop of higher oil price, the leading industrial sectors either energy or basic materials related. The international sectors have come down from their high in the past few weeks due to the same problem as U.S., slower growth with higher inflation. Brazil, Canada, and Latin America which have abundant natural resource are leading the pack.

See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Ranking Update, 6 /20/2008

Another ugly week for the stock market. DJIA lost 464 point, 3.77%, and NASDAQ lost about 1.5% in a week. The slow stochastics [15,1] for the major market indices(NASDAQ, S&P 500, DJIA) all fell below 75. Market is definitely going downward, although a few funds may still try to hang there. It is very difficult to make a profit in this kind of environment. Following trading rules for our ranking system, a trading signal was issued for nSSPP model portfolio, Sell REIT Index, Buy FMCSX. We have held REIT index for 39 days with a loss of 7.8%.

The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

iEF and sETF ranking update, 6/17/2008

See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Ranking Update, 6 /13/2008

The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading Signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio, Sell FRESX, Buy FICDX.

Trading Signal Occurs in FEMKX Timing Model, 6/13/2008

Slow economy and high inflation rate caused the current market volatility. DJIA and NASDAQ have suffered for the past two weeks with big losses. The up trend of FEMKX since mid March, appeared to be holding its own at a time, now seems to fizzle away. The slow stochastics of FEMKX has dipped below 75 (STO[15,1] of FEMKX stands at 66.01, see chart below). A "sell" signal is issued based on our trading rule. We will swallow the loss and move to the side line.

FEMX Trading Log

Fund    Buy On    Buy@    Sell On    Sell@    P/L
FEMKX  03/26/07  $25.15  08/06/07   $29.53   17.42%
FEMKX  09/10/07  $28.98  12/28/07   $33.82   16.71%
FEMKX  04/28/08  $31.73  6/13/07    $30.81   -2.90%

 

iEF and sETF ranking update

See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:

http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Rankin Update 6/6/2008

The weekly Momentum Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:

http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Oil price shot up more than $10 on Friday. The high unemployment rate did not help either. Dow Jones tanked almost 400 point is one day. Where do Bush's tax rebate checks go? For FEMKX timing model, the stochastics is down to 76.88, but still above the 75 sell threshold (see chart below). We will hold it for one more week and see how the market develops.

FEMX Trading Log

Fund    Buy On    Buy@    Sell On    Sell@    P/L
FEMKX  03/26/07  $25.15  08/06/07   $29.53   17.42%
FEMKX  09/10/07  $28.98  12/28/07   $33.82   16.71%
FEMKX  04/28/08  $31.73  

 

iEF and sETF ranking update

See Momentum Rankings of iETF and sETF in:

http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The markets are in a consolidating pattern for the past couple of weeks. Hope it won't last longer and resume its up trend.