Fund Ranking Update 8/29/2008

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Market did not seem to have the conviction to go up or go down. Maybe it is a good time to look back and see how useful the AMI rankings system is. People are curious to know how successful I am applying this system. To give you some clue, here is the track record (chart below) of my portfolio value for the past 10 years. I have normalized the asset value based on that of 1998. In 1999, I was transferred by my company to Germany for 3 years. Back then, the internet technology was not as mature as it is right now. During that 3 years my investment activities were almost non-existent and my portfolio suffered the significant loss in the 200 - 2002 bear market. In 2003, after 2 1/2 years of bear market, stock market started to recover and had a robust up trend for 4 and half years. With the market in a bull run, and utilizing my AMI ranking system (I started posting the AMI rankings on my website in mid-2003), my portfolio have grown at an faster pace than the US stock market. With simple rules and disciplined execution, hope you and I can do even better in the next 10 years!

iEF and sETF ranking update, 8/26/2008

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Ranking Update 8/22/2008

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSESX, Buy FBIOX.

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF are posted in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The international markets are still weaker than U.S. market. With lower oil price and stronger dollar, the U.S. market held up better than the other global regions. Within U.S. industrial sectors, the health care related sectors, such as bio-tech, medical equipment, etc., are leading the pack. Sector rotation is very obvious at this juncture.

iETF and sETF ranking update, 8/19/2008

See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Ranking Update 8/15/2008

Trading signal occurs is ETF model portfolio: Sell IGE, Buy IBB.

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

2008 summer Olympic games are rigorously played out in Beijing, China during these two weeks. We have seen the dazzling opening ceremony, great facilities and China's economy progress in recent years from TV broadcasting. Let's also take a look at the once mighty China index fund, FXI. The following chart shows its price movement for the past 3 years. It started out at around $20 in August 2005. The run-up for the next 2 years take it to $70, more than triple of what it started. At that time, people thought China's economy will keep growing and so was the price of FXI. However, as US economy slowed down due to burst of housing bubble, and sub-prime crisis, China's economy also followed suit. After all, US is still the driving force in the global economy landscape. FXI went down from its high of $70 in October, 2007 to $40 in March 2008 with more than 40 % loss. Currently, FXI is still in the bear territory. Its STO is below 20 and the price is still below its trend line. However, $40 seems to be the support level for FXI. It was successfully tested twice in the past few months, first in mid-March, and the second time in mid-June. We will see in the next few weeks if it can successfully test this level and reverse itself.

iETF and sETF ranking update, 8/12/2008

See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Ranking Update 8/8/2008

Stock market had a good rally this week. Comparing the two charts below and we can see an interesting phenomenon. The NASDAQ composite index which is laden with technology companies is in the process of forming a technical "double bottom." It closed this week a little bit above its 28 week moving average, and its STO(15,1) is trying to climb above 50. The S&P 500 index, a broader market index, is lagging the performance of NASDAQ composite as shown in the second chart. It still closed below its 28 week moving average and its STO is still struggling below 50. Usually the technology sector leads the general market in the recovery phase. However, I am not rushing to say that stock market is recovering now, that remains to be seen when the up trend is confirmed and firmly estabilished. For now, just be patient with the cash on the side line and watch the market developing itself.

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

iETF and sETF ranking update, 8/5/2008

Big rally today. Will it last?

See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.Post Optionspan.googlepages.com/

Fund Ranking Updates and FEMKX model update, 8/1/2008

Market had quite a ride during the week: Monday, DJIA went down 238. Tuesday, it went up 264. Wednesday, it went up again for 186. Thursday it went down 200. Finally on Friday, it went down 54. For the wole week, DJIA only went down 43 points. Four out of Five days, we saw it went up and down for more than a hundred points. This kind of volatility is very difficult for market timing system to work and it is one of the reason why I use the weekly price rather than daily price in my ranking table.

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/


Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model: FEMKX was sold on 6/13 and we are still holding the cash position for this model.

FEMX Trading Log

Fund    Buy On    Buy@    Sell On    Sell@    P/L
FEMKX  03/26/07  $25.15  08/06/07   $29.53   17.42%
FEMKX  09/10/07  $28.98  12/28/07   $33.82   16.71%
FEMKX  04/28/08  $31.73  6/13/08    $30.81   -2.90%
CASH   06/13/08  $1.00