Fund Rankings Update, 12/30/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell IUTIX, Buy NSVAX.

Investors' mind are still focused on the festivity of the holidays and not on the tradings in the last trading week of the year. Major indexes ended the week about where they were in the beginning of the week. SP 500 index closed this week at 1257 down 0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.62%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.52%.

After holding Columbia treasury index fund, IUTIX, for 6 months, trading signals occurs in our HSA model portfolio as more stock funds gaining momentum and push the rank of IUTIX out of the top five funds. The holding has been replaced with a more aggressive small cap value fund, NSVAX.  

S&P 500 started this year at 1257 and ended at 1257 with no gain for the year. In the beginning of the year, economy recovery was gaining traction, more new jobs were created and the index went up for January, February, March and reached the height of 1363 on April 29. At that time it appeared we were going to have another blockbuster year for stock markets. But suddenly the economy landscape changed:  first, Japan hit by tsunami which caused nuclear scare and auto parts shortage, and quenched the manufacturing activity. Following the natural disaster was the human political gridlock at Washington D.C., where politician stuck to their party ideology and failed to reach agreement on raising government debt ceiling to keep it running. The action shattered investors' confidence and cost the triple A standing of the US government debt. Not to be outdone by United States, the European national debt crisis came to limelight and became a bigger problem, insolvency concern spread from  Greece to Span, Ireland, and even Italy.  With these speed bumps, manufacturing slowed, consumer tighten and company stopped hiring. Sensing the weakness in the economy, the S&P 500 index stopped its climb and headed south. It plummeted 220 points in six weeks from July 11 to August 22, and reached the low of the year on October 3 at 1099, 19% below  the high of 1363.  US economy has since then performed better than the rest of the world. Its economy growth is still slow but steady, jobless claim were down and consumers seemed to come back to the market place, and S&P 500 index has climbed to end at where it was at the start of the year.

Weekly chart shows that S&P 500 index is still above its trend line and gaining momentum. Hopefully it will stay there and slowly change the direction of the trend line from downward slope to a  positive one next year. As for the global regions, I think they will still under perform US markets at least for the first half of next year due to the lingering of European debt concern. Happy New Year and Happy Trading!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/23/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Just I said last week that Santa is not coming to Wall Street, miracle happened. SP 500 index went up four straight days and closed this week at 1265 up 3.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.60%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 2.48%.  

Without a clear market direction, most of our holdings in the model portfolios are in funds with defense natures. However, US economy growth, albeit slow, is currently leading the the global economy. From SELECT ranking table, we can see quite a few industrial sectors with positive momentum indicators. Our current holding, FSHOX, still hold the number one rank and has stayed there for four weeks. Its weekly chart shows that the price is above the trend line and is gaining momentum. Hopefully this trade will turn into a profitable one.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/16/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FOCPX, Buy FIUIX
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRPX, Buy FSHOX

European debt crisis is still the big elephant in the room, and it seems that Santa is not coming to Wall street this year. SP 500 index closed this week at 1219 down 2.83%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.61%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.46%.  S&P 500 index is still dancing around its 28 week moving average. It failed to stay above the trend line this week and showed a lower high formation. There is a strong resistance at 1250 level and we may stuck in the trading channel of 1150 - 1250 for a while.

Since the rally in early October fails to turn into a sustainable up-trend, the SSPP and SELECT model portfolios switch their holdings to more defensive funds, FIUIX and FSHOX respectively this week and incur some loss.

 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/9/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Investors were encouraged by the progress coming from European summit to solve their debt crisis. SP 500 index closed this week at 1255 up 0.88%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.37%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 0.76%. S&P 500 index is right at the top of the trading channel. It will be interesting to see how it behave this time.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/2/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Good retail sales from Black Friday and Cyber Monday as well as gleams of hope for European debt crisis propelled stocks to have the best week in two years . SP 500 index closed this week at 1244 up 7.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 7.01%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 7.59%.

We have experienced dramatic volatility in the past few weeks. Major stock indexes went up and down for more than 4% in a week. From the weekly chart, S&P 500, after failing to hold above the trend line in October, dipped to 1150 and bounced back above the trend line again. Short term, there is a support at 1120 level, and there seems to be a resistance at  around 1250 which is where we are right now. It will be very interesting to see if the index will hold up and break the resistance this time.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/25/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

After failing to stay above the trend line last week, all the major indexes collapsed on the downside. SP 500 index closed this week at 1158 down 4.69%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.78%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 5.09%.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/18/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Fear of European debt crisis come back to haunt the Wall Street. All three major indexes closed this week above their 28 week moving average.  SP 500 index closed this week at 1215 down 3.81%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.97%.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/11/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Stocks succesfully tested the support after breaking the trend line. All three major indexes closed this week above their 28 week moving average.  SP 500 index closed this week at 1263 up 0.85%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.42%, while the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.28%.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/4/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy FOCPX

Just as we thought the European debt crisis may be behind us, it came right back to haunt the investors' again.  SP 500 index closed this week at 1253 down 2.48%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.03%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.86%.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see the index is testing the support line after breaking above it last week. The rally will be sustained if the test is successful, and we will find that out in the next couple of weeks.

Due to seasonal effect, technology sectors have shown stronger momentum than the other sectors during this rally. The technology laden OTC portfolio, FOCPX, grab the number one rank in the SSPP ranking table and a trading signal was issued to sell Cash and buy FOCPX. Note that this is the second week that we are taking a more aggressive position (We issued signal to sell FSLXX and buy FSRPX in SELECT model portfolio last week). 

Fund Rankings Update, 10/28/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLXX, Buy FSRPX

European countries' action to tackle their debt crisis boosted investors confidence. Stocks continued their rebound with all major indexes breaking their downward trend line. S&P 500 index closed this week at 1285 up 3.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.58%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 3.78%.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the momentum indicator is climbing above 50, and the price is breaking above the 28 week moving average trend line. We need to wait for the confirmation signal to validate that this rally can turn into a sustainable up trend.

The US sector funds have quickly regained their momentum after this strong market rebound. In the SELECT ranking table the money market fund has been pushed down below the7th rank.  Accordingly,  a trading signal is issued to sell FSLXX and buy the top ranked fund FSRPX for our SELECT model portfolio.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/21/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Strong company earning overcame the profit taking in the beginning of the week and kept the stock rally going. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 1238 up 1.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.41%, while the Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.14%.

It is encouraging to see S&P 500 index stay above the top of the trading channel at 1220 after breaking it last week. However, the downward trend line provide a stronger resistance at 1257 as seen from the weekly chart below. The index is at the critical juncture as its momentum indicator, STO, is trying to break above 50 and the price is attacking to the trend line.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/14/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy IDU.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy IDU.

Technical rebound and better than expected economy news propelled the major stock indexes to the top the their trading channel. S&P 500 index closed this week at 1224 up 5.98%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.88%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 7.6%.

In two weeks, S&P 500 index has climbed from the bottom of the trading channel at 1120 to the top of the channel at 1220. It will be interesting to see which way index is heading next week. Will the expected good company earnings help the index to break the resistance or traders will take profits and capped the its upward movement. 

After one month in cash position, ETF and sETF model portfolios have moved to Utility sector due to its positive AMI.  Since Utility sector is very defensive in nature, I would stay with cash position and skip this trade.

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Fund Rankings Update, 10/7/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Economy added more than 100,000 jobs in September, which eased a bit the investors' fear of double dip recession in US. Stocks rebounded from the key support level at 1120 of S&P 500 index.  The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1155 up 2.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.74%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 2.65%.

I have not discussed our FEMKX timing model for a while and would like to give an update this week. The model has been very consistent in issuing trading signals at the right time (see trading log in Select_Log page). The model uses STO[15,1] as trading signal. It will buy into the fund if the STO climbs above 50 and sell the fund if STO falls down below 75. In the last trade, the model bought FEMKX when its STO climbed above 50 in July.  After the buy signal, the STO never reached above 70 and fell back below 50. The model then move to cash position after holding the fund for more than a month with 14% loss. This was a failed "buy" signal in action and it cost more than a regular buy and sell signal. FEMKX closed this week at $20.15, 10.3% below our selling price of $22.46. From the weekly chart, there seems to be a support level at $19-$20, and it is currently trying the find comfort in that area. If it finds the support at this level, it will still take some time to consolidate and build a bottom there. In 2008, it moved to cash position for 290 days and finally move to long position at the end of March 2009. We have held cash for only 46 days right now and need to patiently wait for the "buy" signal.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/30/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FNMIX, Buy CASH.

September finally came to an end. With European debt crisis and weak US economy impacting investors' confidence, stocks experience the worst quarter since 2008.  The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1131 down 0.44%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.73%.

Due to negative AMI, SSPP model portfolio issued a trading signal to move to cash position. Looking back its trading records, only twice in the last 7 years had SSPP model portfolio trading moved to a cash position.The last time it moved to side line is at the end of July 2008. The S&P 500 kept falling afterwards and the portfolion stayed in cash position for more than 8 months before it enter the next trade. The economy condition may be different this time around but caution is always the best policy during uncertain time.

Fund rankings update, 9/23/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

After hitting the top of the trading channel, stocks came right down to the bottom this past week.  The sell off started on Wednesday after the Fed released the statement pointing significant risk to the economy and stirred investors' fear of double dip recession. The sell off continued to Thursday and handed stock markets the worst week since October 2008.  The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1136 down 6.54%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.41%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 5.3%.

The weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that we are at the critical 1120 support level. The index fell to 1123 five weeks ago, and rebounded to top of the trading channel at 1216 last week. The silver lining is that at the same support level, the momentum indicator(STO) is higher right now than five weeks ago.  I hope the index can successfully test this support, forms a classical double bottom, and slowly reverses the trend.

Fund rankings update, 9/16/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

After a few weeks in over sold condition, stocks finally had a nice technical rebound. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1216 up 5.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.7%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 6.25%. Notice that S&P 500 index is still trading within the range of 1120 and 1250. The first step to reverse the down trend is for S&P 500 index to break the upper bound of 1250.

From the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the momentum index, STO,  is moving up and the price is trading in the rising channel. These are all good signs, however, one week up does not make the trend. Before the STO climbing above 50, we will wait patiently on the sideline.

Fund rankings update, 9/9/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FDLSX, Buy FSLXX.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EWJ Buy CASH.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWM Buy CASH.

President Obama's plan failed to jolt the stock markets while European debt crisis is still haunting investors.  The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1154 down 1.68%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.5%.

Our model portfolios have either moved to income oriented funds or to cash position due to negative AMI's. In this kind of market conditions, defensive positions will let you sleep better at night. We just have to patiently wait for the market uptrend to comeback.

PS. If you would like to have a google+ account (don't need to add me to your circle), you can click the invitation below:
https://plus.google.com/_/notifications/ngemlink?path=%2F%3Fgpinv%3DNHHXnAtegY4%3ARUaA-zeGxXI

Fund Rankings Update, 9/2/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ Buy CASH.

The upward momentum at the start of the week turned sour as consumer confidence is at its worst level since April 2009, and the economy did not generate any job growth in August. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1173 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.39%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 0.02%.

Technically there is a resistance around 1250 in weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index closed at 1220 on Wednesday and failed to broke the resistance in the subsequent attempts because of the weak momentum. From the price action in the past few weeks, we may see the index stay in the trading range of 1120 and 1250.

PS. If you would like to have a google+ account (don't need to add me to your circle), you can click the invitation below:
https://plus.google.com/_/notifications/ngemlink?path=%2F%3Fgpinv%3DNHHXnAtegY4%3ARUaA-zeGxXI
 

Fund Rankings Update, 8/26/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX Buy FNMIX.

Stock markets, trying to build a bottom, turned in a nice rebound from their support level this past week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1176 up 4.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.32%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 5.89%.

Last week I pointed out that there is a support at 1100-1120 for S&P 500 index, and I am glad to see the support held up well and the index had a nice technical rebound. However, judging from the severity of this correction and the weakness of the investor's sentiment, the index will stay below the trend line for a while and the support may be tested again in the future.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/19/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.

Fear prevailed on Wall street and the major stock indexes plunged again. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1123 down 4.69%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.01%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 6.62%. Technically S&P 500 index is at the short term support level around 1100-1120. I hope the support level can hold and the index can stabilize at this level.

Our FEMKX timing model has issued a sell signal. Its momentum indicator, STO[15,1], has failed to reach beyond 70 after climbed above 50 a month ago and dipped below 50 again 2 weeks ago. After holding the fund for 32 days, we will take the loss for this trade and move to the side line.

Fund Rankings Updates, 8/12/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

S&P 's downgrade of US debt triggered stormy reactions from investors. Stock markets went though a wildest ride this past week which can be illustrated by Dow Jones Industrial Average's triple-digit swing every day. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1178 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.53%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.96%.

After violently fell through the trend line, S&P 500 index is looking for a support level to build the base as shown in the weekly chart. Right now we are just in the initial phase when the index abruptly fell below the trend line and the momentum indicator headed downward rapidly. It will take a while for the index to find a comfort zone and stabilize there. So the questions are, where is the base and how long will it stay there. From the weekly chart, the index bounced off the intra-week low of 1100 indicating that there may be a short term support. From the past two similar situations in September 2008 and April 2010, it took markets about 6 -7 months to recover from the initial collapse and that may give us some idea about the duration. Fundamentally, the support level and duration are determined by whether we are already in a economic recession, heading toward a recession, or if we can avoid the recessionary path and return to the growth.

The intensity of this market collapse can also be observed in the ranking tables. The AMI indicator has turn negatives for number one rank funds in several ranking tables which do not contain bond or income funds. This only happened once during January-March time frame in 2009, but that time markets had stayed in the bottom for a while and poised for a rally. No doubt that the market volatility have increased greatly in the recent years due to trading technology advancement. Sell-offs are getting more abrupt and intense while rallies are gradual and slow. By using weekly closing prices, smoothing algorithm, and holding periods, I have tried to reduced the effect from market volatility. But no strategy is hundred percent as human psychology is erratic and unpredictable. We just have to accept that loss is part of the stock/fund tradings.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/5/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42627, Buy 42635.
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FDLSX.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy EWJ.
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EWM.

Investors' fear of recession coupled with frustration towards politician's inability to resolve US long term debt issue have finally dragged the market down big time, and delivered Wall Street the worst week in two years. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1199 down 7.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.75%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 8.13%!

The weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows the severity of the selling. The index has struggled above the trend line in the past few weeks, and fallen sharply below the support with momentum indicator fell from 70 to 40 in one week. The broad based intensive selling has dramatically changed the momentum rankings in our ranking tables. Almost all the ranking tables have issued trading signals and moved to safer positions. Looking back at our trading history, the last time this happened is in August 2008 before the financial breakdown. Although economic conditions are quite different then and now, stock chart pattern provided similar technical concerns. It is important to follow through whatever the investing strategies you have especially during these kind of periods as they can prevent emotional tradings out of fear.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/29/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IHF, Buy IEZ.

As we approach the August 2 deadline for debt ceiling and still have no resolution in sight, investors' confidence starts crumpling. Making matter worse, the second quarter GDP number released Friday is lower than expect and the first quarter GDP was revised down to 0.4%, indicating that economy was barely growing in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1292 down 3.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.24%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.58%. Good corporate earnings have been offset by poor economy data and stalemate in Washington. Hopefully next week, politicians can stop playing games to reach an agreement and move the country forward.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/22/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FRESX.

Good company earnings lifted the stock markets. The S&P 500 index closed this wee

k at 1345 up 2.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.61%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.47%. All major indexes rebounded from their support this week, indicating continuation of the rally (see chart below). However, with politicians in Washington still can not reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling as August 2 deadline is around the corner, we do not know how stocks will react next week.

GM has modified the fund lineup in its retirement plan again. Quite a few Fidelity mutual funds have been phased out and replaced with privately managed funds. The RSP fund ranking table has now been updated with the 32 funds in the program. The momentum indexes of the new funds will not be accurate for a while since no history prices are available for calculation. The RSP model portfolio was not affected by this change as the holding fund, SSGA REIT INDEX, stays with the program.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/15/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell CASH, Buy FEMKX

Investors turned their attention to the August 2 deadline for US to raise it debt limit. With political bickering going on in Washington, the uncertainty dragged down the stock markets. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1316 down 2.06%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.45%. After breaking the trend line on the upside, all major indexes came back down to test their support this week. The rally will continue, if the trend lines are successfully tested in the next couple of weeks.

After staying at the side line for 2 months, the FEMKX timing model has issued a buy signal again. The system uses the technical indicator, slow STO[15,1], as trading signals. The model will buy FEMKX when its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold the fund for at least 30 days and sell the fund if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. The trading record of FEMKX timing model can be seen in the Select_Log page. FEMKX recently broke its trendline an its slow STO[15,1] went up to 53, above our buying threshold. Our last trade produced a minor loss due to market volatility. Hopefully this trade will be profitable.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/8/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Friday's ugly job report for June poured cold water to the enthusiasm of investors. In the report, economy only added 18,000 jobs in June far less than the 154,000 jobs that was expected, and unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%. With demand still growing, economists think that the recovery although weak is still intact and should pick up steam in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1343 up 0.31%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.59%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.55%.

Last week, all the three major indexes climbed above their trend lines, and this week, all of their momentum indicators broke above 50. Based on these signals, I think the correction has ended and the intermediate up trend will continue.

Canadian Rockies, 7/1 - 7/7

We went to Canadian Rockies for a 7 day trip from July 1 to July 7. More pictures from the trip are posted on Facebook. Here are some highlight from our trip:

7/1, Flew to Calgary and drive to Banff. Explore the towns site and watch Canada Day Parade.

7/2, Drive to Lake Louise and hike to Lake Agnes. Went to Moraine Lake and took Gondola at Lake Louise ski area.

7/3, Drove around scenic Lake Minnewanka Loop Drive, headed up Bow Valley Parkway to Johnston Canyon. It rained for an hour (the only rain during our trip). Went back to Banff, and visit Fairmont Banff Hotspring Resort.

7/4, Drove up Ice Filed Parkway to Jasper. Stopped at Columbia Ice Field Center and took snocoach tour to Athabasca Glacier.

7/5, Took boat tour at Maligne Lake, walked trail at Maligne Canyon. Drove to Mt. Edith Cavell for a close up view of Angel Glacier.

7/6, Stopped at Athabasca Falls en route back to Lake Louise and Banff.

7/7. Drove to Calgary and flew back home.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/1/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Ease of Greece debt crisis and the surprising good US manufacturing data in June gave the over sold market reasons to rally. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1339 up 5.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.43%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 6.15%. It is a good sign that all the three major indexes climbed above their trend lines and their momenta are turning upwards. Hopefully this signals the end of the correction and stock market will go back to its upward trajectory.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/24/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy IUTIX

Uncertainty about European debt crisis and robustness of US economy still depress investors' confidence. In a move to drag down the oil price and boost economy, the international community decided to release their strategic reserve of petroleum at the same time. This government intervention also did not bode well for investors. Commodity prices and stock prices all went down since the announcement. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1268 down 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.58%, while the over-sold Nasdaq composite index got a technical rebound and increased 1.39%.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see the divergent between its price movement and momentum indicator in April. While the price was making a new high in April, its momentum indicator was actually declining. I have pointed out my concern about this divergence in the blog dated 5/27. Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index fell below its trend line and its momentum indicator was falling fast. Since then, the index has been trying to find a support while the momentum indicator fell to oversold area this week. The correction will not be over before the momentum indicator changes its direction and the price goes back up above the trend line. Only at that time, we will know the length (last time, the index stayed below the trend line for about 4 months before it resumed its up trend) and the intensity of this correction.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/17/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average finally stopped 6 week of loosing steak but NASDAQ composite index still kept marching downward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1271 up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.44%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.03%. Fear of the ripple effect from Greece debt crisis and uncertainty about the end of QE2 which will happen at the end of June kept investors on the side line. In this bearish environment, defensive funds such as utility and healthcare have risen in the ranking tables, and some of our model portfolios also have moved to defensive positions to reflect this market correction. We do not know when the market will finish this correction phase and turn around. We can only hope the end of the tunnel is near.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/10/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDSCX, Buy FIUIX

Fear of economy slow down weighed on the markets this week and stocks suffered the sixth week of loss since end of April. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1270 down 2.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.64%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.26%. The weekly chart of S&P 500 index below shows that the index has decisively fallen below its support at 1300, and its momentum is getting worse. As discussed last week, the next support level is around 1220, and this correction will last for a while. Note that, the 1300 level becomes a resistance now.

Withe the correction in progress, the SSPP model portfolio has issued a trading signal. It rotates out of the more aggressive small cap fund, FDSCX, and move to a more defensive utility fund, FIUIX.

While reviewing the ranking tables, I also found that, the fund prices for SSGA REIT index, SSGA mid/small cap index and SSGA emerging market index in the RSP ranking tables are not very up-to-date for the past few weeks. As a result, their AMI rankings may not be very accurate. Since these funds are not public traded, I have no other sources to obtain the quotes other than logging into my 401k plan website to manually retrieve them every week. In a month, more fidelity funds will be phased out in RSP and new private funds will be added due to plan change . Rankings of the new funds will be even more difficult at that time.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/3/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

All the economy data (consumer confidence, manufacturing activities, jobs report, .etc.) came out weak this week suggesting that the economy recovery has hit a soft patch in the month of May. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1300 down 2.32%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.29%.

As shown in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, the index is falling right on the trend line and the momentum index is heading downward. It is critical to see if the index can bounce back from this support level. If the current 1300 support fails to hold, the next level will be around 1220.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/27/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Mixed bag of economy data this week provided little direction for stock markets. Stocks drifted lower for the fourth week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1331 down 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.56%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.23% for the week. Weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the index is testing the trend line. The concern I have from technical point of view is that the momentum indicator is drifting downward and is showing divergent pattern with the price movement. Anyway, we will know the outcome of this test in a few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/20/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42632 (Small CAP growth), Buy 42627 (REIT index).

Stocks drifted lower this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1333 down 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.66%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.89% for the week. Stocks are moving side way and it looks like this side way movement will last for another few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/13/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IBB.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy IHF.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

With dollar gets stronger, the emergent markets and commodity markets faltered. US stock market, on the other hand, fared better. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1337 down 0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.34%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 0.03% for the week.

This week with the volatility in oil prices, we've seen the money rotated out of the oil related sectors into healthcare/biotech sectors and trading signals were issued in ETF and sETF model protfolios respectively. The stronger dollars also caused the momentum indicator of FEMKX to drop down to 71, below the selling threshold of 75 and a sell signal is issued for FEMKX timing model.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/6/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSESX, Buy FBIOX.

Silver price crashed first and the Oil price followed. Collapes of these commodity prices put pressure on the stock market. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1340 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.34%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.60% for the week.

The months of May and June are usually "cool" months for stock markets, and the action of major indexes in this first week of May kind of validate that. The good company earning news and stronger than expected job growth in April failed to inspired investors. However, I do not see any disruption to the up-trend from technical point of view. Momentum of The S&P 500 index is still high and the prices is still above the trend line as observed in the weekly chart below.

Sharp drop in the oil price triggered the selling signal in our SELECT model portfolio. We will sell energy service sector fund, FSESX and buy the current top rank fund, FBIOX (bio technology).

Fund Rankings Update, 4/29/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWC, Buy EWY.

Strong company earnings bostted stocks market again. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1363 up 1.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.44%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 1.89% for the week.

From May 2, some funds in our Health Saving Account (HSA) program will be retired, and more funds will be added to the program. Some of the remaining funds also have changed their symbols. To reflect these changes, I have revamped the HSA ranking table, and HSA model portfolio. I have selected 20 funds out of the 23 funds in the program for momentum ranking. The funds with symbol changes are:

CBSAX-->>CLSPX

COVAX-->>NSVAX

NAESX-->>NAESX

VIMSX-->>VIMSX

CMUAX-->>NAMAX

NLGIX-->>NGPAX

NBIAX-->>NBGPX

NLFAX-->>CLGZX

Fund Rankings Update, 4/22/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Led by strong company earnings from technology companies, stocks went up broadly this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1337 up 1.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 2.01% for the week.

To continue and conclude my analysis of APPLE and GOOGLE from last week, here is what transpired this week: On Monday, Apple's price did a intra day reversal. It went down to a low of 320 but came right back and ended the day up at 332. From then on, the price went up non-stop and closed this week at 350. From the weekly chart, we can see its price bounces above the trend line and the momentum is turning upward. Resumption of the up trend will be confirmed when it breaks the previous high of 360. A conservative investor will take position after the confirmation while a more risk tolerant investor will take position now. Now, turning our attention to Google. With deteriorating momentum, its price went down 1.0% this week at a time when technology companies are leading the stock market higher. It may look like there is a temporary support around 525 for Google but I think 500 is a better bet from the weekly chart.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/15/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks were in a consolidation mode. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1319 down 0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 031%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.57% for the week. A lot of companies will report earnings in the next 2 weeks. How stocks react to these announcements will tell us whether they are going up or going down.

Although I mainly focus on analyzing price charts of ETF and mutual funds, sometimes I come across some interesting stock charts that I woule like to share. Due to poor earning report Google's stock price went down $48 (8.26%) today. Google and Apple are the two major tech companies competing in the smart phone and tablet area. Let's compare the weekly charts of these 2 companies. Apple has been going higher an higher since March 2009. Every time the price touch the trend line and the momentum indicator fell below 50, it came right back and resume its up trend. Currently, its price touches the trend line and the momentum indicator falls below 50 again. It will be interesting to see if it can repeat its previous pattern to resume the up trend. On the other hand, Google's 2009 rally has been interrupted in March 2010. After six months, its price went back above trend line, but failed to go higher. The price went side way for 5 months, went down below the trend line in March this year and failed to break above it at the end of March. Its momentum is going downward and I suspect the price will go down to 500 - 450 level.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/8/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks were mostly flat this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1328 down 0.32%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.03%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.33% for the week.

Technically, S&P500 index is still hovering above the trend line in the weekly chart, and its momentum indicator has climbed back above 80 after went down to 70 two weeks ago. It looks like the index is moving side way before it breaks above the previous high of 1343.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/1/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks boosted by good job report continued their march upward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1332 up 1.42%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.28%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 1.7% for the week.

After staying at the side line for 2 months, our FEMKX timing model has issued a buy signal again. The FEMKX timing model is different than the momentum ranking system. It uses the technical indicator, slow STO[15,1], as trading signals. The model will buy FEMKX when its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold the fund for at least 30 days and sell the fund if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. The trading record of FEMKX timing model can be seen in the Select_Log page. In the weekly chart of FEMKX below, we can see that after we sold FEMKX at the end of January, the fund has successfully tested the support (tend line) 3 times and recently broke the previous high of $26.64. In addition, its slow STO[15,1] shot up from 39 to 65 this week. This price action and the upswinging momentum bode well for a bullish argument for FEMKX.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/25/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWG, Buy EWC

Better economy news and strong company earnings helped stocks rebound from their support levels. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1313 up 2.70%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.05%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased3.76% for the week.

There was not much change in the sector trend. The energy related sectors still hold top momentum rankings among US domestic sectors, while global regions are still struggling to find a major theme. Our holding of EWG in iETF model portfolio has dropped below 7th rank and is replaced by EWC.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/18/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Uncertainty due to Japan's nuclear crisis dragged down the stock market for another week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1279 down 1.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.54%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index suffered a loss of 2.65% for the week.

In the last blog post, I pointed out that stock market is due for a technical consolidation or correction. If you look at the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, you can see that the price is heading down toward the trend line and its momentum (STO[15,1]) is declining fast. Holding at the support will be the key to keep this rally going and we shall see how things develop in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/11/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Market was affected not by economy new but by political development in the middle east and the earthquake and tsunami hitting Japan early Friday morning. Technically, I think the market is due for a consolidation or a correction. Stocks ended this week on the downside, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1304 down 1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.03%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.48% for the week.

While the overall market is heading toward consolidation or maybe even a correction, there was no change in sector leadership and regional leadership. Energy related sectors still dominate the SELECT and sETF ranking tables while Canada and west European countries are still leading the pack in iETF ranking table.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/4/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYM, Buy IYE.

Private sectors added more jobs in February and push the employment below 9%. This provides the final indicator that the economy recovery is in a sound footing. However, the unrest in the middle east which push the oil price to the highest level since 2008 may threaten the economy growth. Stocks ended this week almost flat, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1321 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.13% for the week.

Energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets due the rising oil prices. In the ETF ranking table, IYM is pushing out of the top 10 ranking and causing our model portfolio to sell the fund and replace it with top ranked IYE. In global regions, Canada and Germany hold the top two momentum rankings.

Here is an update of our FEMKX timing model (I have not done this for a while), which trades only Fidelity Emergent Market Fund, FEMKX. The system will buy FEMKX if its technical momentum indicator, slow STO[15,1], climbs above 50, hold the fund at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on 1/31/2011 and held cash on the side line since then. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX as shown in the chart below, went down to the low of 22 two weeks ago and bounced back afterwards. I am watching closely the price movement of FEMKX as its STO[15,1] currently stands at 40, and we will buy back FEMKX when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50. The trading record for the FEMKX timing model can be found in the "SELECT_Log" page.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/25/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAVX, Buy FSESX.

Stocks' winning steak came to an end this past week. Unrest in Libya caused big volatility in oil price and sent stocks into the negative territory. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1319 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.1%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 1.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets. Oil price has been trending up and exhibited great volatility since "Jasmine revolution" in the middle east. In SELECT ranking table, automotive sector fund, FSAVX has fallen below 7th rank and is replaced with the current top ranked energy service fund, FSESX. Global markets still underperformed US markets. In the iETF ranking table the top ranked fund has been changed hands several times in the past three months, indicating that there is major investment theme in the global market.

This rally has been going on since last September, and it may need to take a break as investors re-assessing their portfolios in lieu of the political development in the middle east. We don't know where the market is heading until we get there. In the meantime, we can stick to our investment strategies and ride this uncertainty out.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/18/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy EWG.

Stocks went up for the third week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1343 up 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.96%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors are leading the way in the US markets, while Korea, and Taiwan lost their shine in global regions and replaced by Germany and Austria. Stocks in global regions still underperformed their US counterparts. Comparing the weekly charts of S&P500 index and FEMKX, we can see that S&P 500 index is still in the up trend with high momentum while FEMKX has been in the consolidation mode with falling momentum since last November.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/11/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks continued their climbing. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1329 up 1.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.5%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.45% for the week.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/4/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks chugged along and reached two year high. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1310 up 2.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.27%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 3.07% for the week.

Small cap, technology, and energy sectors are leading the way in the US markets, while Korea, and Taiwan maintains the top ranks in global regions. Look closely to iETF ranking table, we also noticed that the more developed countries such as Japan, Italy and Germany have come back in life in the past few weeks. However, the US domestic sectors still posses higher momentum than global regions, indicating the strength of US economy recovery. Some even said that we are no longer in the recovery phase but in the economy expansion phase.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/28/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX Timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

Selling mood prevailed in the wall street. Investors unloaded their positions on any earning miss, so so economy data and unsettling political news from Egypt. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1275 down 0.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.41%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.1% for the week.

The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of FEMKX has dropped below the selling threshold of 75, and a sell signal has been issued. We have held FEMKX for about 180 days with a gain of 10%. According to our FEMKX timing rule, we will buy the fund if its STO climbs above 50 and sell the fund if its STO falls below 75. Detail trading record of the FEMKX timing model can be found in the SELECT_Log page.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/21/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSCHX, Buy FSAVX.

Cold weather chill investors' mood this week. Stocks ended up mixed this week due to mixed earning reports. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1283 down 0.76%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.72%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.39% for the week.

We have see profit taking this past week and most of the stocks ended down more than the major indexes. Next week, a quarter of the S&P 500 and half of the DOW stocks will report their quarterly earnings. Some companies reported strong earnings this past week but still see their stocks went down, so I expect that the profit taking action will continue next week. This rally has last for a while and need to take a break. Since we are in a multi-year up trend, any pull back will provide good entry point.

As of this morning, the servers at awardspace.com are still not back online. I have moved the pages to other hosting provider. The rankings tables and the trading logs should be up and viewable.

GM has changed the name of its 401k plan to RSP (Retirement Saving Plan), so I have changed the name of the nSSPP ranking table and trading log accordingly to reflect the change as well.

System outage, 1/21/2011

Due to hard disk failure in my web hosting provider, the ranking posts were not available for the past couple of days and will not be available until the service is restore so than I can upload the ranking tables and trading logs for the week. According to their communication, the service should be back online tomorrow night. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/14/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Encouraged by the good company earnings, stocks continued their up trend this past week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1293 up 1.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.96%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.93% for the week.

Monthly chart of S&P 500 index below shows that the index is well above its trend line and the momentum has been strong since August 2010. It indicates that the multi-year up-trend is well under way.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/7/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks came out strong the first week of the new year. Job data on Friday indicated a slow but steady recovery. Technology sectors were boosted by the new products came out of the annual Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1271 up 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.84%, and while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.9% for the week.

Again, we did not see any trend change this past week. Small cap, technology, auto and energy related sectors are still leading the way in US market due to the slow but robust economy growth. Global regions still lagged behind the US markets in performance because of the European debt concern and the government initiated slow down in China.