Weekly Fund Rankings Update, 3/13/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

1. Trading signal occurs in FEMKX model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.
2. Trading Signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42627, Buy 05084.

Investors' fear of rate hike and strong US dollar delivered the third week of loss to stock markets.  However, small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks with Russel 2000 small cap index actually ended up 1.2% higher. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2053, down 0.86%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.13%.  

S&P 500 index has fallen to its 28 week moving average and is trying to hang around the 2060 support level . We may see another couple weeks of consolidation around this level before it bounces up as in the past. As mentioned last week, if this support fails, the next logical support level is around 1990 - 2000 level.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 inex

Oil prices tumbled this week, light crude oil prices index $WTIC fell 9.6% in a week with 4 % drop on Friday. In the weekly chart, $WTIC is forming the second bottom of a "W" formation. A few weeks ago, we discussed about buying at this second bottom of around $45 as a more risk tolerant trading strategy. However, from the weekly and daily charts, $WTIC may very likely fall even lower as its momentum is extremely weak. The prudent strategy would be to wait for a MACD "cross above" buying signal in the daily chart.   

Two trading signals occurs in model portfolios this week. For FEMKX timing system, the stochastic momentum indicator, STO, fell below 75 and a sell signal was issued to move to cash position. FEMKX was held for more than 3 months with a loss of 5.2%. Emerging market funds have not been able to develop a consistent up trend due to falling oil prices, strong dollar and stagnant global economy, and have been under performing the general markets. For RSP model portfolio, the REIT index fund fell below 7th rank in the ranking table and is replaced with the current top rank fund, Pyramis Small Cap Core fund.  The fall of REIT index fund largely attributes to the rate hike concern and the technical correction to the quick run-up early in the year.  The fund was held for 67 days with a loss of 0.47%.