Fund Rankings Update, 12/31/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks fell in the last trading week of 2015 and ended up lower for the year as well. Positive economy data on consumer confidence were offset by increase in weekly jobless claim. Investors just are not in the mood of holding stocks especially in the last two days of the year.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 20430, down 0.83%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.72% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.81%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Although S&P 500 index closed the week two points lower than its 28 week moving average, its weekly momentum indicator perked up a bit. This make us wonder if the "January effect" is around the corner. The January effect is a seasonal effect where investors sell their lost holdings at year end for tax purpose and buy them back in January at a lower price causing the rally in stock markets.

2015 has been another volatile year, S&P 500 index started the year with 2058 and reached the high of 2134 in May for a gain of 76 points. However, the index failed to march higher, and fell below its trend line in August after going flat for three months. S&P 500 index pluged to the low of 1867 due to concern about global economy slowdown, devaluation of China Renminbi and prospect of first rate hike by Federal Reserve. The index made its way back after staying two months below its tend line and has since struggled to keep itself above the support as the declining oil prices dragging its feet.

Looking forwards, we see slow growth in US economy with moderate rate hike as Fed tries to normalize the interest rate. Oil prices will continue to trend lower to $25, if it can not hold the current $34 support. Stock prices, still under a lot of pressure to digest their gain from the long rally in the past three years, will go side way with downward bias at best.