Fund Rankings Update, 3/13/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FBGRX, Buy Cash
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy IUTIX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy Cash
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy Cash
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell IOO, Buy Cash
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy 05088 (Blkrk US Debt index)

Fear of coronavirus spread and worried about US government's slow response during mid-week handed Wall street its worst week in history. Major indices plunged more than 25% from its recent high to the low on Thursday.  President Trump announced national emergency on Friday and pushed the DJIA up 2000 to lighten the damage due to the sharp sell-off. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 8.79% to 2711, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 10.06% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 8.17%. 

After a directionless week, S&P 500 index gaped down and fell below the 2820 resistance to reach the low of 2478, very close to the 2400 support level in 2018. So far, the initial stock market reaction has been very similar to the stock crash in late 2018 as seen in the weekly chart: An indecision week occurred after the first week of sell-off  then followed by the second week of panic sell-off. S&P 500 index stabilized afterwards for a few weeks with high volatility before its final leg down to complete the bear market. If the index behaves the same way as it did in 2018, we will expect another sell-off a few weeks down the road when everyone think the market has stabilized. No one can predict the future, but the damage has been done and we know the recovery will take some time. The momentum indicator STO is approaching the oversold region, and likely to become oversold next week. It is wise to stay on the sideline before the STO indicator climbing out of the oversold region. 

This week all our model portfolios have moved their positions to either cash or bond funds except SELECT model portfolio, which still holds technology sector fund, FSPTX, due to one month holding period rule. Once the rule is fulfilled next week, we expect the SELECT model portfolio will move to cash position as well.   

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index