The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05084, Buy 42635
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSENX
Stocks closed sharply lower this week, marking the fifth consecutive losing streak for the major averages—the worst such stretch since the onset of the current geopolitical conflict. Anxiety regarding the disruption of global energy supplies intensified as crude oil prices continued their ascent with no clear resolution in sight for the war in the Middle East. Economic data and central bank signaling provided little relief to investors; following last week’s FOMC decision to hold rates steady, a growing consensus emerged this week that the Federal Reserve may only deliver a single interest rate cut in 2026. This "higher-for-longer" outlook, coupled with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirming Q4 2025 GDP growth of just 1.4%, has reignited fears of a stagflation environment. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.12% to close at 6,368, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.23%.
The S&P 500 index underwent a significant technical breakdown this week, trading 5% below its 28-week Exponential Moving Average. By closing at 6,368.85, the index has moved into a "bearish phase," characterized by a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The index is now trading well below all its major short- and medium-term EMAs, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The index is currently testing the 6,365 support zone, which represents the lows seen last September. If this level fails to hold on high volume, the next significant support floor sits near the 6,100 level, the lows from last summer.
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| The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index |
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