The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IYE
Stocks ended a volatile, earnings-heavy week lower, as a third straight week of selling in the artificial-intelligence trade overwhelmed a resilient economy and a Federal Reserve that held its ground. The week began on a steadier footing into Wednesday's Fed decision, with the central bank holding rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, and Chair Kevin Warsh refusing to signal a December move. However, Thursday's data and earnings turned the tape: third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% annualized, beating expectations, while September headline PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% and core PCE held at 3.1%, keeping alive the prospect of a December hike. The earnings blow came first from Alphabet, which fell 12.6% Thursday after negative free cash flow of about $9.1 billion revived doubts about the payoff from AI spending, with ServiceNow plunging about 27% in sympathy, and then from Amazon and Intel after Thursday's close: Amazon missed earnings at $1.89 a share and disclosed a trailing twelve-month free-cash-flow outflow of $42.4 billion while guiding 2027 capital spending meaningfully above roughly $220 billion, and Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue well below estimates and warned it would burn cash this year, sending its shares down about 29% Friday, their steepest drop in more than 50 years. Friday broadened the rout — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5% — even as investors rotated into Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield down to about 4.94%, and into energy, with Brent crude rising to about $117.64 and West Texas Intermediate to about $104.12 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% to close at 7,580, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% to finish at 51,770, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid, falling 2.0% to settle at 25,437.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500's pullback deepened into a test of its lower support, with Friday's close of 7,580 slipping below the 7,600 support zone that had contained last week's decline, and sitting below its 10- and 20-day EMAs and just below its 50-day EMA near 7,650, after three straight weekly declines — the longest such run since March. The failed breakout from the 7,800 area continues to define the overhead picture: the 7,800 to 7,817 zone — last month's 7,812 record close and the August 14 intraday record of 7,817 — remains the supply the bulls must reclaim before our 7,850 target, and ultimately the 8,000 psychological level, come back into play. On the downside, Friday's close leaves little cushion above our primary structural floor at 7,500. A weekly close below 7,500 would signal a more serious decline. With the S&P 500 settling at 7,580, our long-term structural trend-following indicators remain in a "Hold" posture with no sell triggers fired yet.
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| The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index |
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